[해외주식] ARK 짧은 시나리오 / ARKK Short Scenario
주식개미
0
1996
2021.05.06 10:00
ARK ETF TR INNOVATION ETF
TUCM
Good evening,
1. What am I looking for?
- Re-Test of 116$ (possibly Gap fill of 116.75$) with low volume , followed by a high volume drop below the 200s daily moving average
- Drop below 111.5-111.3$ area with conviction
- Follow-through to 106$
2. Technical Reasons:
- 111.5$ area is strong Support! (0.38 Fibs from March 2020 + 0.78 Fibs from March 2021)
- 112.85$ is 200s daily moving average line
- Downward volume is increasing; However, LOW volume encountering the 111.5$ area, indicating a potential bounce back!
- Broke below Trend-Channel that started March 2021
3. Game Plan:
At this point, entering a short position (or puts) would be chasing the move because it went down for 7 consecutive days!! Do not chase it now. I strongly expect a bounce back to re-test the 116$ area at which a gap is to be filled and at which 0.61 Fib resistance is. I want to see low volume at the rip and high volume at the dip back below the 200 daily MA. Then I will enter a position to look for the, then very likely, break of 111.3$ My first profit target will be 106$. Stop-Loss above 200s MA.
-> This setup is A+ since a lot of support (200 MA, Short- and Long-Term Fibs, Trend-Channel) is broken if entry-conditions are satisfied!
4. Fundamentals / Macro / Sentiment:
- Earnings Season is ending (most important companies already reported)
- SPX looks like it is topping out and a correction is due
- Negative Sentiment in Meme Sto(n)cks, of which ARKK largely consists
Do not chase and wait for confirmation, 7 consecutive red days may be followed by a bounce! Wait for consolidation and attack with conviction after that.
I am looking forward to reading your ideas. Thank you.
1. What am I looking for?
- Re-Test of 116$ (possibly Gap fill of 116.75$) with low volume , followed by a high volume drop below the 200s daily moving average
- Drop below 111.5-111.3$ area with conviction
- Follow-through to 106$
2. Technical Reasons:
- 111.5$ area is strong Support! (0.38 Fibs from March 2020 + 0.78 Fibs from March 2021)
- 112.85$ is 200s daily moving average line
- Downward volume is increasing; However, LOW volume encountering the 111.5$ area, indicating a potential bounce back!
- Broke below Trend-Channel that started March 2021
3. Game Plan:
At this point, entering a short position (or puts) would be chasing the move because it went down for 7 consecutive days!! Do not chase it now. I strongly expect a bounce back to re-test the 116$ area at which a gap is to be filled and at which 0.61 Fib resistance is. I want to see low volume at the rip and high volume at the dip back below the 200 daily MA. Then I will enter a position to look for the, then very likely, break of 111.3$ My first profit target will be 106$. Stop-Loss above 200s MA.
-> This setup is A+ since a lot of support (200 MA, Short- and Long-Term Fibs, Trend-Channel) is broken if entry-conditions are satisfied!
4. Fundamentals / Macro / Sentiment:
- Earnings Season is ending (most important companies already reported)
- SPX looks like it is topping out and a correction is due
- Negative Sentiment in Meme Sto(n)cks, of which ARKK largely consists
Do not chase and wait for confirmation, 7 consecutive red days may be followed by a bounce! Wait for consolidation and attack with conviction after that.
I am looking forward to reading your ideas. Thank you.
번역:
AKETFTR 혁신 ETF
TUCM
좋은 저녁입니다.
1. 내가 뭘 찾는데요?
- 볼륨이 낮은 116$(가능성 있는 갭 채우기 116.75$)의 재테스트 후 일일 이동 평균보다 큰 볼륨 감소
- 확신이 있는 111.5-111.3$ 영역 아래로 떨어짐
- 106$ 후속 조치
2. 기술적 이유:
- 111.5$ 면적은 강력한 지원! (2020년 3월부터 0.38 Fibs + 2021년 3월부터 0.78 Fibs)
- 112.85$는 200s 일일 이동 평균 회선입니다.
- 하향 볼륨이 증가하고 있지만, LOW 볼륨이 111.5$ 영역에 도달하여 되돌아올 가능성이 있음을 나타냅니다!
- 2021년 3월부터 시작된 트렌드 채널 미달
3. 게임 계획:
이때 짧은 포지션(또는 퍼트)을 입력하면 7일 연속 내려갔기 때문에 추격을 하게 됩니다!! 지금 쫓지 마세요. 나는 갭이 채워지고 0.61 Fib 저항이 있는 116$ 영역을 다시 테스트하기 위해 바운스가 되돌아올 것을 강력히 기대한다. 리핑 시 낮은 볼륨, 200 daily MA 이하 딥백 시 높은 볼륨을 보고 싶습니다. 그러면 111의 휴식시간을 찾을 수 있는 위치로 들어가겠습니다.3$ 나의 첫 번째 이익 목표는 106$가 될 것이다. 정지-손실 200초 이상 MA.
-> 진입 조건이 충족되면 많은 지원(200MA, 장단기 피브, 트렌드-채널)이 깨지기 때문에 이 설정은 A+입니다!
4. 펀더멘털/매크로/감정:
- 어닝시즌 종료(대부분의 주요 기업들이 이미 보고됨)
- SPX가 토핑된 것 같고 보정 예정
- 밈 스토(n)cks의 부정적 정서, 그 중 ARCK가 주로 구성
추적하지 말고 확인을 기다리십시오. 7일 연속 적신호가 나타날 수 있습니다! 그 후 통합과 공격이 확실해질 때까지 기다립니다.
나는 너의 생각을 읽기를 고대하고 있어. 감사합니다.
원문링크: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ARKK/crvdOMpS-ARKK-Short-Scenario/
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