[해외주식] 교정은 어떻게 이루어지는가? / SPY: How do corrections work?
주식개미
0
1753
2021.09.29 10:27
SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
Realamh
By definition, any dip between 10-20% lower than a peak, is called a correction. And here we are seeing some of the most famous historical market corrections. Except for 2000, that one was a bear market but I included it here because there are some similarities between our current market condition to the ".com bubble." But let's hope for the best and say this is not going to be a bear market, and is only a correction similar to what we saw in 1998 and 2018.
There are many other market corrections in between these two dates but I picked these to show you the market mechanics has not changed much since 1998. In most of these corrections, you find the trend line being violated, retested, and rejected (red arrows). Similar to what we saw today! As you can see on the 2018 chart, the actual correction didn't come through till December after forming a triple top. So bear that in mind that when a correction begins, it's hard to pinpoint when it's going to hit the bottom and reverse. The correction in 1998 was also a complex one because the market formed a double bottom before going back up. something we didn't see in 2018.
It’s worth mentioning, this is not the only scenario moving forward. As we all know, the market is more unpredictable than we think, and it can always make small 10% corrections and go right back up and continue making ATHs. So please stay calm, and watch the market carefully and remember, the US market may have corrections or even enters bear markets, but it always moves up and makes new ATHs eventually.
So what's the best move for average retail traders in these conditions? Stay in cash! Some folks will try to buy long OTM puts and wait for the correction to reverse, and some may try to find the bottom and start buying calls, but these actions do not have a significant chance of success and are mostly pure gambles. The best course of action for an average retail trader is to stay out of the market while these corrections are happening. It's a good time to stay in cash and wait for the bottom with a solid reversal confirmation before getting back in the game.
There are many other market corrections in between these two dates but I picked these to show you the market mechanics has not changed much since 1998. In most of these corrections, you find the trend line being violated, retested, and rejected (red arrows). Similar to what we saw today! As you can see on the 2018 chart, the actual correction didn't come through till December after forming a triple top. So bear that in mind that when a correction begins, it's hard to pinpoint when it's going to hit the bottom and reverse. The correction in 1998 was also a complex one because the market formed a double bottom before going back up. something we didn't see in 2018.
It’s worth mentioning, this is not the only scenario moving forward. As we all know, the market is more unpredictable than we think, and it can always make small 10% corrections and go right back up and continue making ATHs. So please stay calm, and watch the market carefully and remember, the US market may have corrections or even enters bear markets, but it always moves up and makes new ATHs eventually.
So what's the best move for average retail traders in these conditions? Stay in cash! Some folks will try to buy long OTM puts and wait for the correction to reverse, and some may try to find the bottom and start buying calls, but these actions do not have a significant chance of success and are mostly pure gambles. The best course of action for an average retail trader is to stay out of the market while these corrections are happening. It's a good time to stay in cash and wait for the bottom with a solid reversal confirmation before getting back in the game.
번역:
SPDR S&P 500 ETF 트러스트
레알람
정의에 따르면 피크보다 10-20% 낮은 모든 딥을 보정이라고 합니다. 그리고 여기서 우리는 가장 유명한 역사적인 시장 조정을 보고 있다. 2000년을 제외하고, 그것은 약세장이었지만, 우리의 현재 시장 상황과 ".com 버블" 사이에 몇 가지 유사점이 있기 때문에 여기에 포함시켰다. 하지만 최선을 바라고 이것이 약세장이 되지 않을 것이며, 1998년과 2018년에 우리가 보았던 것과 비슷한 조정일 뿐이라고 말하자.
이 두 날짜 사이에 많은 다른 시장 수정 사항이 있지만, 시장 메커니즘이 1998년 이후 크게 변하지 않았다는 것을 보여주기 위해 이것을 선택했습니다. 이러한 수정의 대부분에서 추세선을 위반, 재테스트 및 거부(빨간색 화살표)하고 있습니다. 오늘 우리가 본 것과 비슷해! 2018년 차트에서 볼 수 있듯이, 실제 수정은 트리플 탑을 형성한 후 12월에나 이루어졌다. 그러니까 수정이 시작되면, 언제 바닥에 부딪혀서 역행할지 정확히 집어내는 것이 어렵다는 것을 명심하세요. 1998년의 조정 또한 복잡한 것이었는데, 시장이 상승하기 전에 이중 바닥을 형성했기 때문입니다. 2018년에는 보지 못했던 것이죠.
언급할 가치가 있습니다. 앞으로 나아갈 시나리오는 이것뿐만이 아닙니다. 우리 모두가 알다시피, 시장은 우리가 생각하는 것보다 더 예측하기 어렵고, 항상 작은 10%의 수정을 할 수 있고, 곧바로 돌아가서 계속해서 ATS를 만들 수 있습니다. 그러니 제발 진정하시고 시장을 주의 깊게 지켜보세요. 미국 시장은 수정되거나 심지어 약세장에 진입할 수도 있지만, 그것은 항상 상승하고 결국 새로운 ATH를 만들어 냅니다.
그렇다면 이런 상황에서 일반 소매업자들에게 가장 좋은 조치는 무엇일까요? 현금 보관하세요! 어떤 사람들은 OTM 풋을 오래 구입하고 수정이 번복되기를 기다릴 것이고, 어떤 사람들은 바닥을 찾아 전화를 사기 시작하려고 할 수도 있지만, 이러한 행동들은 성공할 수 있는 중요한 기회를 갖지 못하고 대부분 순수한 도박이다. 일반 소매업자가 취할 수 있는 최선의 조치는 이러한 수정이 일어나는 동안 시장에 발을 들여놓지 않는 것이다. 현금에 머물면서 확실한 역전 확약으로 바닥을 기다린 뒤 경기에 복귀하는 것이 좋은 시점이다.
원문링크: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPY/OQAl32PC-SPY-How-do-corrections-work/
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