[해외주식] 롱 ATM/Autohome / Long ATHM/Autohome


Autohome Inc
Badassmofo
This current setup indicates good value on decent fundamentals with a strong technical support line at 65USD.
Business Fundamentals
-Majority owned by Chinese Insurance Giant, Ping An Group
-Part of HangSang Tech index (30 selected tech firms)
-Dual-listed on HKSE & NYSE, interchangeable 1ADR to 4 HK listed shares (removes delisting fears)
-Stable & consistent High Margins business over 10 yr period (88% gross margins, Net Margins of 39%, FCF to Sales % of 35%)
-In a much better position (Financially & Operating business margins) as compared to other listed rivals UXIN & CANG (lower margins & UXIN is heavy in debt)
Valuation
-Cash of 19USD per share with no debt
-Generates 4.3 USD EPS / 4 USD FCF per share
-EPS Growth projected at 11% CAGR for next 3 years
-At 63USD that is a 10 P/E ex-cash or a 15 P/E
-For context, it usually trades at an average Price to operating earnings of 22 (based on 5yrs avg ). Highs at 51x P/E with lows at 15x P/E.
-If it reverts to the mean valuation of 22x P/E by 2023, we can expect a 116% ROI and a 35% annualized return from now(July 2021) to 2023
Technicals
-Seems to have a strong resistance/support line at 65USD, which have been tested and bounced off many times (Oct 2018 & March 2020)
-At a price of 65USD & below, seems like a good entry point
Business Fundamentals
-Majority owned by Chinese Insurance Giant, Ping An Group
-Part of HangSang Tech index (30 selected tech firms)
-Dual-listed on HKSE & NYSE, interchangeable 1ADR to 4 HK listed shares (removes delisting fears)
-Stable & consistent High Margins business over 10 yr period (88% gross margins, Net Margins of 39%, FCF to Sales % of 35%)
-In a much better position (Financially & Operating business margins) as compared to other listed rivals UXIN & CANG (lower margins & UXIN is heavy in debt)
Valuation
-Cash of 19USD per share with no debt
-Generates 4.3 USD EPS / 4 USD FCF per share
-EPS Growth projected at 11% CAGR for next 3 years
-At 63USD that is a 10 P/E ex-cash or a 15 P/E
-For context, it usually trades at an average Price to operating earnings of 22 (based on 5yrs avg ). Highs at 51x P/E with lows at 15x P/E.
-If it reverts to the mean valuation of 22x P/E by 2023, we can expect a 116% ROI and a 35% annualized return from now(July 2021) to 2023
Technicals
-Seems to have a strong resistance/support line at 65USD, which have been tested and bounced off many times (Oct 2018 & March 2020)
-At a price of 65USD & below, seems like a good entry point
번역:
오토홈
바다스모포
이 현재 설정은 65USD의 강력한 기술 지원 라인으로 적절한 기초에 대한 좋은 가치를 나타냅니다.
비즈니스 기본 원리
- 중국 보험 대기업 핑안그룹 대주주
- 항상테크지수 일부(기술기업 30개 선정)
- HKSE & NYSE에 이중 상장, 1ADR과 4HK 상장주식 교환 가능(상장공포 해소)
- 10년 이상 지속적이고 안정적인 고수익 사업(총이익 88%, 순이익 39%, FCF 대 매출 35%)
- 다른 상장 경쟁사 UXIN & CANG에 비해 훨씬 나은 위치(재무 및 영업 마진)에서 (마진이 낮고 UXIN은 부채가 많은 편임)
가치평가
- 무채무 주당 19달러 현금
- 주당 4.3 USD EPS / 4 USD FCF 발생
- EPS 향후 3년간 CAGR 11% 성장 예상
- 63USD로 10P/E 전 현금 또는 15P/E
- 상황에 따라서는 평균 Price에서 22 영업 이익(5년 avg 기준)으로 거래됩니다. 최고는 51배, 최저는 15배입니다.
- 2023년까지 22배 P/E의 평균 평가로 되돌아간다면 지금부터 2021년 7월까지 116%의 ROI와 35%의 연간 수익률을 기대할 수 있습니다.
테크니컬즈
- 65USD에 강한 저항/지지선이 있어 여러 차례 테스트 및 튕겨나간 것 같습니다(2018년 10월~2020년 3월)
- 65USD 이하 가격으로 좋은 진입점인 것 같습니다.
원문링크: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ATHM/3riK8ypH-Long-ATHM-Autohome/
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