[해외주식] SPY가 내일 결정적인 움직임을 보인다. / SPY making a critical move tomorrow
주식개미
0
1880
2021.08.19 17:23
SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
ITMmatty
This SPY Schiff pitchfork is anchored to the lows of the Covid crash, extended to the November 2020 double bottom that started this whole mess.
After losing the healthiest median 0 level in May, bullish dominance in SPY has weakened. The -0.75 level, in this case the lowermost dashed red line, has only been interacted with three times since 2021, two of which have been within the last quarter (circled).
However, after Fed minutes were released today, SPY quickly encountered that level again.
Note that despite this selloff, RSI is still well off the support each prior -0.75 move has prompted.
RSI has a concerningly far distance to travel before encountering that support again (marked with dotted pink line), which leads me to believe we may be in for another red day.
Concerningly, the same Heiken-Ashi candle setup we've seen from both today and yesterday seem parallel to the circled 0.75 moves, where two days of mild selling led to gaps down the subsequent trading day.
Current MacD also aligns with MacD positioning on the days immediately prior to each ∼2.5% gap down.
It's possible that a move of this magnitude could interact with or even invalidate the critical -1.0 line, which would be a significant red flag.
I should also note that in the two weeks following each prior gap down, SPY has made a ∼6% move upward off it's lowest point, so this could also present a fantastic bullish swing opportunity.
After losing the healthiest median 0 level in May, bullish dominance in SPY has weakened. The -0.75 level, in this case the lowermost dashed red line, has only been interacted with three times since 2021, two of which have been within the last quarter (circled).
However, after Fed minutes were released today, SPY quickly encountered that level again.
Note that despite this selloff, RSI is still well off the support each prior -0.75 move has prompted.
RSI has a concerningly far distance to travel before encountering that support again (marked with dotted pink line), which leads me to believe we may be in for another red day.
Concerningly, the same Heiken-Ashi candle setup we've seen from both today and yesterday seem parallel to the circled 0.75 moves, where two days of mild selling led to gaps down the subsequent trading day.
Current MacD also aligns with MacD positioning on the days immediately prior to each ∼2.5% gap down.
It's possible that a move of this magnitude could interact with or even invalidate the critical -1.0 line, which would be a significant red flag.
I should also note that in the two weeks following each prior gap down, SPY has made a ∼6% move upward off it's lowest point, so this could also present a fantastic bullish swing opportunity.
Comment:
I would also like to note the bearish RSI divergence as well as the key structure/Fibonacci levels at 436 and 429. 436 is not an unreasonable bearish case target within a week, and 429 would be a "cut all bullish positions" level of signal, to me personally.
번역:
SPDR S&P 500 ETF 신뢰
ITMatty
이 SPY Schiff 피치포크는 이 모든 혼란을 일으킨 2020년 11월 더블 바텀까지 확대된 이번 Covidios 추락의 저점에 고정되어 있습니다.
지난 5월 가장 건강한 중위권 0을 상실한 이후, SPY의 강세는 약해졌다. 이 경우 가장 낮은 빨간색 파선인 -0.75 레벨은 2021년 이후 세 번만 상호 작용했으며, 이 중 두 개는 지난 분기(원형) 내에 있었습니다.
그러나 오늘 Fedminutes가 공개된 후 SPY는 다시 그 수준에 도달했습니다.
이러한 매각에도 불구하고 RSI는 여전히 이전의 각 조치에서 비롯된 지원에서 크게 벗어나지 못하고 있습니다 -0.75.
RSI는 지원군을 다시 만나기 전에 이동 거리가 상당히 멀어서(점 핑크 선으로 표시됨) 또 다른 레드데이를 맞이하게 될 수도 있다고 생각합니다.
우려되는 것은, 오늘과 어제 우리가 보아온 하이켄-아시 촛불과 같은 것이 0.75의 원형 이동과 평행한 것처럼 보인다는 것입니다. 이틀간의 완매도 이후 거래일의 격차로 이어졌습니다.
또한 현재의 MacD는 각 ~ 2.5%의 갭 다운 직전에 MacD 포지셔닝과 일치합니다.
이 크기를 이동하면 임계 -1.0 선과 상호 작용하거나 무효화할 수 있습니다. 이 선은 유의한 빨간색 플래그가 됩니다.
또한 SPY는 이전 격차를 줄인 후 2주 동안 최저점에서 ~6% 상승하여 환상적인 스윙 기회를 제공할 수 있습니다.설명: 또한 436과 429의 주요 구조/피보나치 수준뿐만 아니라 RSI의 약세 분기점에 주목하고 싶다. 436은 1주일 이내에 불합리한 약세 사례 목표가 아니며 429는 나에게 개인적으로 "모든 약세 위치 절단" 수준의 신호가 될 것이다.
원문링크: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPY/olHRO49s-SPY-making-a-critical-move-tomorrow/
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