[FX] AUD: 강력한 작업 데이터가 RBA 정상화를 가리키고 있습니다. / AUD: Strong labour data po…
FX개미
0
1761
2021.06.21 09:19
Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
thunderpips
Fundamental bias: Mildly bullish
The Australian dollar was hit by the hawkish Fed this week but domestically, the very strong employment data (May unemployment rate fell to 5.1% vs consensus 5.5%) this week is set to make the 7 July RBA meeting very interesting. The RBA minutes did not reveal anything new but among the four possible options presented in terms of the future of the QE programme, our economists favour the one of scaling back the amount purchased or spreading the purchases over a longer period. With the RBA moving towards the first step of policy normalisation (albeit admittedly not being as hawkish as the Bank of Canada or the Norges Bank), this should give some support to AUD over the summer.
Data-wise, we have May retail sales (Monday) and June PMIs (Wednesday), but neither should impact AUD too much. In terms of domestic data, the unemployment figures this week were crucial. In terms of external factors, the wider direction of the US dollar will be key next week. While the downside risks to AUD/USD remain for next week, the pace of the decline should be more limited vs the price action observed this week.
The Australian dollar was hit by the hawkish Fed this week but domestically, the very strong employment data (May unemployment rate fell to 5.1% vs consensus 5.5%) this week is set to make the 7 July RBA meeting very interesting. The RBA minutes did not reveal anything new but among the four possible options presented in terms of the future of the QE programme, our economists favour the one of scaling back the amount purchased or spreading the purchases over a longer period. With the RBA moving towards the first step of policy normalisation (albeit admittedly not being as hawkish as the Bank of Canada or the Norges Bank), this should give some support to AUD over the summer.
Data-wise, we have May retail sales (Monday) and June PMIs (Wednesday), but neither should impact AUD too much. In terms of domestic data, the unemployment figures this week were crucial. In terms of external factors, the wider direction of the US dollar will be key next week. While the downside risks to AUD/USD remain for next week, the pace of the decline should be more limited vs the price action observed this week.
번역:
오스트레일리아 달러/미국 달러
벼락치기
기본 편향: 약간 강세
이번 주 호주달러가 매파적인 연준의 타격을 받았지만 국내적으로는 이번 주 고용지표(5월 실업률은 5.1% vs 컨센서스 5.5%)가 강세를 보여 7월 7일 RBA 회의가 매우 흥미롭게 될 것으로 보인다. RBA 회의록에는 새로운 내용이 발표되지 않았지만 QE 프로그램의 미래에 대해 제시된 네 가지 가능한 옵션 중에서, 우리 경제학자들은 구입 금액을 축소하거나 더 오랜 기간에 걸쳐 구매를 확산시키는 것을 선호한다. RBA가 정책 정상화의 첫 단계로 나아가는 가운데(비록 캐나다 은행이나 노르웨이 은행처럼 강경하지는 않지만), 이는 여름 동안 AUD에 약간의 지원을 제공할 것이다.
데이터상으로는 5월 소매 판매(월요일)와 6월 PMI(수요일)가 있지만 AUD에 큰 영향을 미치지는 않습니다. 국내 데이터로는 이번 주 실업률이 결정적이었다. 대외적인 요인으로는 다음 주 미국 달러화의 보다 넓은 방향이 관건이 될 것으로 보인다. AUD/미국의 하방 리스크는 다음 주에도 여전하지만 이번 주 관측된 가격 대비 하락 속도는 더 제한적일 수밖에 없다.
원문링크: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUDUSD/O65sPFA6-AUD-Strong-labour-data-points-to-RBA-normalisation/
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